Optimising koala surveys to detect changes in distribution: turning poo into conservation evidence

Koalas can be difficult to detect. They are often high in the canopy, occur at low densities, and may be missed even at sites where they are present.

Surveys for signs such as koala scats can cover many more locations than searches for individual animals, but they come with the same basic problem: an empty survey result may mean that koalas are absent, or simply that they were not detected.

This uncertainty makes it difficult to know whether an apparent change in koala distribution is real. A small decline in the number of sites where koala signs (e.g. scats) are found could reflect a genuine loss of habitat use, but it could also arise through ordinary variation in surveying and observation. Conservation managers need monitoring methods that can tell the difference, particularly if they are to respond before a decline becomes severe.

The project will develop new mathematical methods to determine how occupancy surveys should be planned: how many sites to include, how much effort to spend at each site, and how surveys should be repeated over time. The aim is to maximise the chance of detecting meaningful changes in koala distribution early enough for conservation action to make a difference.

Researcher